You went for routine bloodwork and your doctor said your A1C is 6.1%. They tell you, “you’re in the pre-diabetic range.” Your doctor mentions lifestyle changes, maybe medication, and warns that without intervention, you are at high risk for developing type 2 diabetes. You have questions. What exactly is prediabetes? How likely are you to progress to diabetes? Can you reverse it? And what about these GLP-1 medications you keep hearing about—can they help?

Prediabetes affects approximately 98 million American adults (more than one in three). It represents a critical window where intervention can prevent progression to type 2 diabetes or even restore normal blood sugar levels. Without intervention, roughly one-third of people with prediabetes develop diabetes within four years. With lifestyle changes alone, this risk drops to about 20%. But recent clinical trial evidence shows that GLP-1 medications like semaglutide and tirzepatide offer even more dramatic diabetes prevention, with some studies showing over 90% reduction in progression risk.

This article examines the evidence for using GLP-1 medications in prediabetes, including what prediabetes actually means and why it matters, clinical trial results showing diabetes prevention rates, how these medications compare to lifestyle intervention alone, who might benefit from medication versus lifestyle changes only, and practical considerations for treatment decisions.

Understanding Prediabetes and Diabetes Risk

Prediabetes is not a benign condition to ignore. It represents a state where blood sugar levels are higher than normal but not yet high enough to meet diabetes diagnostic criteria. The American Diabetes Association defines prediabetes as having a hemoglobin A1C between 5.7% and 6.4%, or fasting plasma glucose between 100 and 125 mg/dL.

At the cellular level, prediabetes involves insulin resistance (your cells do not respond normally to insulin) combined with progressive dysfunction of the beta cells in your pancreas that produce insulin. Your pancreas compensates by making more insulin to overcome the resistance, but eventually it cannot keep up. When beta cell function declines sufficiently, blood sugar rises into the diabetes range.

The progression from prediabetes to diabetes is not inevitable, but it is common. Without intervention, approximately 37% of people with prediabetes develop type 2 diabetes within four years based on data from the Diabetes Prevention Program, one of the landmark studies in this field. Within the prediabetes range, higher A1C values carry greater risk. Someone with an A1C of 6.3% has higher diabetes risk than someone with an A1C of 5.8%, though both are in the prediabetes category.

Prediabetes is not just about future diabetes risk. It is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease, kidney damage, nerve damage, and other complications even before diabetes develops. Treating prediabetes offers benefits beyond just preventing progression to diabetes.

The Case for Intervention: Lifestyle Changes Work

Before discussing medication, it is important to understand that lifestyle intervention is highly effective for prediabetes and represents the foundation of treatment.

The Diabetes Prevention Program demonstrated that intensive lifestyle intervention (targeting 7% weight loss and 150 minutes per week of moderate physical activity) reduced the risk of progressing from prediabetes to diabetes by 58% over three years compared to placebo. For people over age 60, the risk reduction reached 71%. Long-term follow-up showed these benefits persisted for 10 to 15 years after the original intervention.

The intervention involved dietary changes emphasizing whole grains, vegetables, lean proteins, and reduced calorie intake, regular physical activity with goals of at least 150 minutes per week, modest weight loss of 5% to 7% of body weight, and behavioral support through regular counseling sessions. Even participants who did not achieve the weight loss goal but met the physical activity goal of 150 minutes per week experienced a 44% decrease in diabetes incidence, showing that multiple pathways contribute to diabetes prevention.

Other landmark studies including the Finnish Diabetes Prevention Study confirmed similar findings. Lifestyle intervention targeting weight loss and increased physical activity consistently reduces diabetes progression by roughly 30% to 60% across diverse populations.

The challenge with lifestyle intervention is adherence. Many people struggle to achieve and maintain the recommended changes long-term. Real-world diabetes prevention programs show lower effectiveness than research trials, with participation rates and weight loss often falling short of trial results. This is not a failing of individuals but reflects the difficulty of sustained behavior change in everyday life outside controlled research settings.

Semaglutide Evidence: STEP Trial Results in Prediabetes

Clinical trials of semaglutide provide strong evidence for diabetes prevention in people with prediabetes and obesity or overweight.

A comprehensive analysis examined participants with prediabetes across the STEP 1, 3, and 4 trials, which included 1,536 adults with overweight or obesity and prediabetes at baseline. After 68 weeks of treatment with semaglutide 2.4 mg weekly plus lifestyle intervention, 84% to 85% of participants had normal blood sugar levels (normoglycemia), compared to 48% to 70% of those receiving placebo plus lifestyle intervention.

The STEP 10 trial, published in 2024, was specifically designed to study semaglutide in people with obesity and prediabetes. This randomized, double-blind trial enrolled 207 participants across 30 sites in Canada, Denmark, Finland, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Participants had an average baseline A1C of 5.9% and BMI of 40.1. After 52 weeks of treatment with semaglutide 2.4 mg weekly, participants achieved an average weight loss of 13.9% compared to 2.7% with placebo. The proportion reverting to normoglycemia and improvements in glucose metabolism were significant, though specific percentages were reported as primary endpoints assessed at week 52.

In people with prediabetes treated with semaglutide in the STEP trials, improvements were seen in A1C levels, fasting plasma glucose, insulin resistance measured by HOMA-IR (a calculated measure of how well insulin is working), and other metabolic markers. These improvements were substantially greater than those seen with placebo plus lifestyle intervention.

The data suggests that weight loss magnitude correlates with likelihood of returning to normal blood sugar. Greater weight loss was associated with higher rates of normoglycemia, though semaglutide provided benefits beyond what weight loss alone would predict.

Tirzepatide Evidence: SURMOUNT-1 Three-Year Results

The most dramatic diabetes prevention data comes from the SURMOUNT-1 trial three-year extension in participants with prediabetes, published in the New England Journal of Medicine in November 2024.

This analysis focused on 1,032 participants from SURMOUNT-1 who had both obesity and prediabetes at the start of the trial. Participants were randomized to receive tirzepatide at doses of 5 mg, 10 mg, or 15 mg weekly, or placebo, for 176 weeks (over three years), followed by a 17-week off-treatment period.

The results were striking. After 176 weeks of treatment, only 1.3% of participants taking tirzepatide (pooled across all doses) progressed to type 2 diabetes, compared to 13.3% taking placebo. This represents a 94% reduction in the risk of developing diabetes. More than 90% of participants on tirzepatide had normal A1C levels at 176 weeks, compared to 59% of placebo-treated participants.

Even after stopping medication for 17 weeks, only 2.4% of those who had received tirzepatide had developed diabetes, compared to 13.7% of the placebo group. This suggests some durability of effect even after discontinuation, though the protective benefit was stronger during active treatment.

The number needed to treat was nine, meaning that for every nine people treated with tirzepatide, one case of diabetes would be prevented. This represents highly effective prevention.

Weight loss with tirzepatide was substantial and sustained. Participants on the 15 mg dose achieved an average weight reduction of 22.9% at 176 weeks. This degree of weight loss contributed to the metabolic improvements, though tirzepatide's effects on glucose metabolism extend beyond weight loss through direct effects on insulin sensitivity and beta cell function.

At 72 weeks, more than 95% of participants with prediabetes who received tirzepatide had converted to normoglycemia (A1C below 5.7%), compared to 62% in the placebo group.

How GLP-1 Medications Prevent Diabetes Progression

Understanding the mechanisms helps explain why these medications are so effective for diabetes prevention beyond their weight loss effects.

GLP-1 receptor agonists improve insulin sensitivity, meaning your cells respond better to insulin. This reduces the demand on your pancreas to produce excessive insulin. The medications enhance insulin secretion from pancreatic beta cells in response to glucose. This glucose-dependent mechanism means insulin is released when blood sugar is elevated but not when it is normal, reducing hypoglycemia risk.

GLP-1 agonists suppress glucagon, a hormone that raises blood sugar. In prediabetes and diabetes, glucagon is often inappropriately elevated, contributing to high blood sugar. Suppressing it helps normalize glucose levels. The medications slow gastric emptying, which means glucose from food enters your bloodstream more gradually rather than causing sharp spikes.

Weight loss from GLP-1 medications independently improves insulin sensitivity and reduces the metabolic stress on beta cells. Adipose tissue (fat tissue) produces inflammatory molecules that worsen insulin resistance. Losing fat mass reduces this inflammation and improves metabolic health.

These combined mechanisms address multiple aspects of the metabolic dysfunction in prediabetes simultaneously, which explains why the medications are more effective than lifestyle intervention alone in clinical trials.

Comparing Approaches: Medication Versus Lifestyle Alone

The clinical trial data allows for comparison between different intervention strategies for preventing diabetes in prediabetes.

Lifestyle intervention alone (as shown in the Diabetes Prevention Program) reduces diabetes progression by approximately 58% over three years. This is meaningful and represents the foundation of treatment. The intervention requires approximately 7% weight loss and 150 minutes per week of moderate physical activity.

Semaglutide 2.4 mg weekly plus lifestyle intervention results in 84% to 85% of people with prediabetes achieving normal blood sugar at 68 weeks based on STEP trial analyses. This substantially exceeds the roughly 48% to 70% seen with placebo plus lifestyle intervention in the same trials.

Tirzepatide at doses of 5 mg to 15 mg weekly plus lifestyle intervention results in 94% reduction in diabetes progression over 176 weeks based on SURMOUNT-1 data. More than 95% achieved normoglycemia at 72 weeks with tirzepatide compared to 62% with placebo.

The medication approaches produce greater weight loss than lifestyle intervention alone. In the STEP trials, semaglutide produced 10% to 17% weight loss over 68 weeks. In SURMOUNT-1, tirzepatide produced 15% to 22.5% weight loss at 72 weeks and sustained weight loss of nearly 23% at 176 weeks with the 15 mg dose. This compares to typical weight loss of 3% to 5% with intensive lifestyle intervention alone.

This does not mean lifestyle changes are unnecessary when using medication. The trials combined medication with lifestyle intervention. The medications work best when paired with healthy eating and physical activity, not as a replacement for these behaviors.

Who Should Consider GLP-1 Medications for Prediabetes?

The decision about whether to use medication for prediabetes involves weighing several factors including your individual diabetes risk, response to lifestyle intervention, other health conditions, and personal preferences.

Medical guidelines generally recommend starting with lifestyle intervention for prediabetes. If you have not yet attempted sustained lifestyle changes (dietary modification and regular physical activity), starting there makes sense for most people. Lifestyle changes provide broad health benefits beyond glucose control and do not involve medication costs or potential side effects.

However, medication might be appropriate earlier for certain individuals. If you have tried intensive lifestyle intervention for several months without achieving adequate weight loss or blood sugar improvement, medication becomes a reasonable addition. If you have multiple diabetes risk factors (family history, previous gestational diabetes, PCOS, significant obesity), more aggressive intervention might be warranted.

If your A1C is in the higher end of the prediabetes range (6.0% or above), you are at greater immediate risk of progression. Earlier medication intervention might be more justified. If you have other obesity-related health conditions that would benefit from significant weight loss (sleep apnea, hypertension, joint problems), GLP-1 medications address multiple conditions simultaneously.

The decision should be made collaboratively with your healthcare provider based on your complete health picture, not based on A1C alone.

At Mochi Health, we provide comprehensive weight management care that includes addressing metabolic health conditions like prediabetes. Our providers can help you understand whether GLP-1 medication is appropriate for your situation, develop a personalized treatment plan, and provide ongoing support. All patients have access to registered dietitian nutritionists who can help you implement the lifestyle changes that work synergistically with medication. Beyond weight management, we offer medications for related health conditions. You can explore treatment options at https://joinmochi.com/medications.

Check Your Eligibility

If you want to learn whether GLP-1 treatment is right for you and receive personalized guidance from providers who understand prediabetes management and diabetes prevention, you can start by completing Mochi's eligibility questionnaire. Check your eligibility here: https://app.joinmochi.com/eligibility.

References

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This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered medical advice. Consult with healthcare providers about whether GLP-1 medications are appropriate for your individual health needs and circumstances.